Most people who file taxes get money back, but the share varies by year and income level
In recent years, roughly 70 to 75 percent of people who file federal income tax returns receive a refund. That means about three out of every four filers walk away with money owed back to them rather than owing more tax. The exact percentage shifts year to year depending on changes to tax law, wage patterns, and how many people adjust their withholding.
The percentage also depends on who you are. Higher-income filers are less likely to get refunds than lower-income filers. People who claim many dependents or have complex tax situations see different refund rates than single filers with straightforward income. Self-employed people and those with investment income refund at different rates than W-2 wage earners.
If you are waiting for a refund, knowing whether you are in the majority does not change your timeline or your next step — but it can help you understand whether your situation is typical or whether something unusual might be happening with your return.
Key Takeaways
- Between 70 and 75 percent of federal tax filers receive a refund in any given year, though this percentage shifts based on tax law changes and economic conditions.
- Lower-income households refund at higher rates than higher-income households, because tax credits and withholding patterns work differently across income levels.
- The refund percentage has ranged from the mid-60s to the high-70s over the past two decades, so year-to-year variation is normal.
- Whether you get a refund depends on how much tax was withheld from your paychecks or paid through estimated payments, not on how much you earned.
Why the refund rate is not the same every year
The percentage of filers receiving refunds moves when tax law changes. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 altered withholding tables, and many filers saw smaller refunds or owed money instead. When the IRS adjusted withholding guidance in 2020 and again in 2022, the refund rate shifted again. Major changes to tax credits — like the expanded Child Tax Credit in 2021 — also move the needle because they change how much money people owe or are owed at filing time.
Economic conditions matter too. During recessions or periods of high unemployment, more people claim refundable tax credits, which pushes the refund rate up. When wages rise sharply, withholding may not keep pace, and more people end up with refunds. The IRS does not publish a single reason for year-to-year changes, but the combination of law, wages, and claiming patterns all play a role.
How income level affects whether you get a refund
Lower-income filers refund at rates above 80 percent in most years. This happens because lower-income households are more likely to claim refundable tax credits like the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the Child Tax Credit. These credits can exceed the tax you owe, so the IRS sends you the difference. A person earning $25,000 with two children may owe zero tax but receive a $3,000 refund from the EITC alone.
Middle-income filers — those earning $50,000 to $100,000 — typically refund at rates between 65 and 75 percent. Higher-income filers refund at lower rates, sometimes below 60 percent. This is partly because high earners are less likely to claim refundable credits and partly because they have more control over their withholding and can adjust it to owe or receive very little at tax time.
The difference between refund rate and refund amount
The percentage of people getting refunds is different from how much money they receive. The IRS publishes both numbers, and they tell different stories. A high refund rate with a low average refund amount means many people get money back, but not much. A low refund rate with a high average refund amount means fewer people get refunds, but those who do receive larger sums.
In recent years, the average federal refund has been between $2,500 and $3,200, though this varies by state and income level. Lower-income filers often receive larger refunds because of tax credits. A filer earning $20,000 might receive a $4,000 refund, while a filer earning $80,000 might receive $1,500. The percentage tells you how common refunds are; the average tells you how large they tend to be.
What affects your personal refund likelihood
Your own refund depends on withholding, not on national statistics. If your employer withholds too much tax from your paychecks, you will get a refund. If too little is withheld, you will owe. Self-employed people and those with side income can adjust by making estimated tax payments. People with investment income, rental income, or other non-wage earnings often need to plan their withholding differently than W-2 employees.
You control your withholding by filling out a W-4 form at your job or by making estimated payments if you are self-employed. The IRS provides a withholding calculator on its website that can help you figure out whether your current withholding will result in a refund, a balance owed, or something close to zero. If you received a large refund last year and do not want to wait for that money, adjusting your withholding is the way to change it.
State refund rates differ from federal rates
Not all states have income tax, and those that do see different refund rates than the federal government. States with lower tax rates or different credit structures may have higher or lower refund percentages. Some states refund at rates above 75 percent; others are below 65 percent. If you live in a state with income tax and are waiting for both a federal and state refund, the state refund may arrive on a different timeline and in a different amount.
State refunds typically arrive within two to eight weeks of the state receiving your return, though this varies. Some states process refunds faster than others. If you filed electronically and chose direct deposit, state refunds usually arrive faster than paper checks. You can track your state refund status through your state tax agency's website, just as you can track your federal refund through IRS.gov.
How to learn about you are getting a refund
You will not know your personal refund status until you file your return or until the IRS processes it. The national refund rate tells you what is typical, but it does not predict your outcome. Once you file, you can check the status of your federal refund using the IRS Where's My Refund tool at IRS.gov. You will need your Social Security number, filing status, and the exact refund amount from your return.
If you have not filed yet and want to estimate whether you will get a refund, use the IRS withholding calculator. It asks about your income, deductions, credits, and current withholding, then tells you whether you are likely to owe, break even, or receive a refund. This is an estimate, not a may provide, but it can help you decide whether to adjust your W-4 before filing.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it normal to get a refund every year?
Yes. Most filers receive refunds most years. If you get a refund every year and it is large, you may want to adjust your W-4 so less tax is withheld — that way you keep more of your paycheck throughout the year instead of waiting for a refund. The IRS withholding calculator can help you decide whether a change makes sense for your situation.
Why did my refund get smaller this year?
Refunds shrink when withholding changes, tax law changes, or your income or credits change. The 2017 tax law changes reduced refunds for many filers. If you claimed fewer dependents, earned more money, or claimed fewer credits this year, your refund may be smaller. Check your return to see which line items changed from last year.
Do self-employed people get refunds at the same rate as employees?
No. Self-employed filers refund at lower rates because they do not have withholding taken from paychecks. Instead, they make estimated tax payments four times a year. If you underpay estimated taxes, you will owe at filing time. If you overpay, you will get a refund. The rate depends entirely on how accurately you estimated your tax liability.
Can the refund rate tell me whether I will get money back?
No. The national refund rate is an average across millions of filers with different incomes, credits, and withholding. Your refund depends only on your own tax situation. Use the IRS withholding calculator or speak with a tax professional to find out whether you personally will receive a refund.
What if I did not get a refund but most people do?
That is fine. About 25 to 30 percent of filers do not get refunds — they either owe money or break even. This is normal and does not mean anything is wrong with your return. If you owe and want to avoid that next year, you can adjust your W-4 to have less tax withheld, or if you are self-employed, you can increase your estimated tax payments.