Whether Colorado will issue a TABOR refund in 2026 depends on whether the state collects more revenue than the TABOR cap allows — something that won't be known until after the 2026 tax year ends and the state auditor certifies the final numbers in early 2027.

TABOR (Taxpayer Bill of Rights) refunds happen only when Colorado's general fund revenue exceeds the spending limit set by the constitutional amendment. The state does not announce refunds in advance. Instead, the Colorado Office of the State Auditor calculates whether a refund is owed after the fiscal year closes on June 30, then certifies the result by October 15 of that year. For a 2026 refund to occur, revenue collected between July 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026 would need to exceed the cap, and that information would come in October 2026.

Colorado has issued TABOR refunds in recent years — most recently in 2023 and 2024 — but refunds are not may provide every year. Economic conditions, tax policy changes, and spending decisions all affect whether the state will collect more than the cap allows. You cannot know whether a 2026 refund will happen until the state auditor publishes the certification.

Key Takeaways

  • TABOR refunds are determined by comparing actual state revenue to the constitutional spending cap, a calculation that happens after each fiscal year ends on June 30.
  • The state auditor certifies whether a refund is owed by October 15 of the following year, so a 2026 refund decision would come in October 2026.
  • Recent years have included refunds, but they are not automatic — economic downturns, lower tax collections, or increased spending can eliminate the surplus.
  • If a refund is certified, the state legislature decides how to distribute it, and the method varies (direct payment, tax credit, or other means).
  • You do not need to take any action to receive a TABOR refund if one is issued; the state distributes it automatically to taxpayers who filed a Colorado return.

How the TABOR cap is calculated each year

The TABOR limit is set by a formula written into the Colorado Constitution. The cap is the prior year's spending limit, adjusted upward by the rate of inflation (measured by the Consumer Price Index) plus the rate of population growth. If actual revenue comes in below that cap, no refund occurs. If revenue exceeds the cap, the surplus is supposed to be refunded to taxpayers.

The calculation sounds straightforward, but it involves several moving parts. Inflation and population growth rates are not known until after the year ends. Revenue collections depend on economic conditions, employment, sales, and investment income — all of which fluctuate. A strong economy can push revenue above the cap; a weak one can keep it below. Tax law changes also matter: if the legislature raises or lowers tax rates, that directly affects how much money flows in.

Why recent years had refunds but 2026 is uncertain

Colorado issued TABOR refunds in 2023 and 2024 because the state collected more revenue than the cap allowed. Those surpluses were driven partly by strong economic conditions and partly by higher-than-expected tax collections from capital gains and income taxes. However, a recession, job losses, or a decline in investment returns could flip that picture in any given year.

The state legislature also has some control over whether a refund occurs. If lawmakers spend money from the general fund (rather than keeping it in reserve), that reduces the surplus. Conversely, if they hold spending below the cap, a surplus is more likely. Budget decisions made in 2025 and early 2026 will influence whether revenue exceeds the cap in fiscal year 2026.

When you would know about a 2026 refund

The Colorado Office of the State Auditor publishes a preliminary calculation in September of each year, and a final certification by October 15. For fiscal year 2026 (which ends June 30, 2026), the auditor would issue the final certification in October 2026. That is the official announcement of whether a refund is owed.

Once the auditor certifies a refund, the state legislature must decide how to distribute it. In recent years, Colorado has used different methods: direct payments to taxpayers, tax credits applied to the following year's return, or a combination. The legislature typically acts quickly after certification, but the exact timing and method are not set until lawmakers vote.

How to learn about a refund is issued

The best source for TABOR refund information is the Colorado Department of Revenue website, which publishes updates as the process unfolds. You can also check the Office of the State Auditor's website for the official certification once it is released in October 2026.

If a refund is certified and the legislature approves a distribution method, the state will announce how and when you will receive it. If you filed a Colorado income tax return in the relevant year, you will be included automatically — you do not need to take any action or submit a claim. The state has your address and tax information on file.

What happens if no refund is certified

If revenue in fiscal year 2026 does not exceed the TABOR cap, no refund will be issued. This can happen during economic slowdowns or if the state experiences lower-than-expected tax collections. It is also possible if the legislature spends more from the general fund, reducing the surplus.

In years without a refund, the surplus (if any) is typically held in the state's reserve fund or used for authorized spending under TABOR rules. Colorado residents do not receive a payment, but they also do not owe anything extra. The absence of a refund simply means the state did not collect more than the cap allowed.

Factors that could affect a 2026 refund

Several things will influence whether Colorado collects enough revenue to trigger a refund in 2026. National economic growth or contraction will affect employment and income tax collections. Stock market performance influences capital gains taxes. Real estate activity affects property transfer taxes. Any significant change in Colorado's economy between now and June 2026 could shift the outcome.

Tax policy changes also matter. If the legislature raises or lowers income tax rates, sales tax rates, or other levies before or during fiscal year 2026, that directly changes revenue. Similarly, if lawmakers approve new tax credits or deductions, those reduce the money available for refund. Budget decisions made in the 2025 and 2026 legislative sessions will play a role in the final outcome.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I predict whether there will be a TABOR refund in 2026?

No. The state does not know whether a refund will occur until after June 30, 2026, when the fiscal year closes and revenue is fully counted. Economic conditions over the next year and a half, tax policy decisions, and state spending all affect the outcome. The auditor's certification in October 2026 is the only official answer.

If a refund is issued, how much will it be?

The amount depends on how much revenue exceeds the cap. Recent refunds have ranged from a few hundred dollars to over $1,000 per taxpayer, but the size varies based on the surplus and how the legislature decides to distribute it. You will not know the amount until the auditor certifies the refund and the legislature votes on the distribution method.

Do I have to do anything to receive a TABOR refund?

No. If a refund is issued and you filed a Colorado income tax return in the relevant year, you will receive it automatically. The state does not require you to claim it or submit paperwork. The distribution method (direct payment, tax credit, or other) will be announced by the legislature.

What if I moved out of Colorado — do I still get a refund?

If you filed a Colorado return for the year in question, you are may have access to to a refund based on your tax residency status during that year. The state will send it to the address on file with the Department of Revenue. You can update your address with the department if you have moved.

Is a TABOR refund the same as a tax return refund?

No. A TABOR refund is a one-time payment from the state when revenue exceeds the constitutional cap. A tax return refund is money you overpaid in taxes during the year, which you receive when you file your annual return. They are separate and unrelated.